Between 2025 and 2029, the average global warming is expected to exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius: this is the forecast of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a United Nations agency, with a 70% certainty. According to an annual climate report prepared by the UK Met Office based on forecasts from ten centers and published by the WMO, it is expected that the planet will maintain historic levels of warming even after the two hottest years ever recorded (2023 and 2024).
Risks of negative impacts on economy and society
The data indicate that in the next five years, until 2029, temperatures will remain at record levels. There is an 80% probability that at least one year will surpass the current record-holding year, 2024, for heat, and an 86% chance that at least in one case the 1.5-degree threshold above pre-industrial levels will be exceeded. The new WMO report highlights the growing risks of negative impacts on the economy and society, as well as on the entire planet.
WMO: “The last ten years were the warmest”
“We have just lived through the ten warmest years ever recorded,” comments Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General of the WMO. “Unfortunately, this report provides no sign of relief in the coming years, which means there will be an increasing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems, and our planet.”
The increase compared to 1850-1900
According to the data, the annual average global temperature in the period 2025-2029 will be between 1.2 and 1.9 degrees higher than that of 1850-1900. There is also a 70% probability that the average warming over five years will exceed 1.5 degrees: this percentage is significantly higher compared to the 47% in last year’s report and the 32% in the 2023 report.
Arctic at risk
The Arctic is particularly at risk, already experiencing much faster warming than the rest of the planet. Predictions say that in the next five winters, between November and March, warming will be more than 3.5 times higher than the global average, reaching 2.4 degrees above the 1991-2020 period.
Seasons are changing
As for precipitation, the period from May to September will be wetter in Northern Europe, the Sahel region of north-central Africa, Alaska, and northern Siberia, while the Amazon will have to deal with drier seasons.
